Strategic foresight
for fragile security environments.
I am an international security professional and German Bundeswehr officer with over two decades of operational leadership across NATO, UN, and bilateral missions — from Afghanistan and Iraq to Mali, South Sudan, Djibouti, and the Western Balkans.
Currently serving as Crisis Management Initiative Leader for Bosnia and Herzegovina at NATO HQ International Staff in Sarajevo, I translate complex geopolitical realities into actionable strategy for defence organisations, international institutions, policy partners, and civil society actors operating in conflict-affected environments. My current analytical focus is on strategic foresight, early warning, and creeping-crisis dynamics in fragile security environments.
Under the label Middle East Minds, I develop bespoke analyses and facilitate structured engagements on conflict dynamics, governance fragility, and strategic competition across the Middle East and Africa — available on request since 2023.
Tailored risk assessments, scenario work, and decision-support for organisations operating in or exposed to fragile and conflict-affected environments — informed by first-hand operational insight and OSINT-grounded indicator design.
Middle East Minds →Crisis response frameworks, tabletop exercises, and institutional preparedness — drawing on an international network of practitioner and academic partners across multilateral institutions and specialised research environments.
Enquire →Long-horizon scenario analysis, creeping-crisis indicators, and structured early warning frameworks for decision-makers operating in fragile and contested environments. Methodical, not predictive — built on Risk Governance, OSINT-grounded indicator design, and operational ground truth.
Enquire →Keynote addresses, panel contributions, and bespoke analytical briefs on strategic foresight, early warning, NATO crisis management, Western Balkans stability, climate security, and the future of multilateral security institutions.
Enquire →A curated selection of analytical briefs and guest contributions on strategic foresight, early warning, and creeping-crisis dynamics will appear here as they are released. For current analytical work, see Middle East Minds or get in touch directly.
Whether you are assessing risk in an unfamiliar region, preparing your organisation for a crisis, or seeking a credible voice on international security — I am available for selected mandates, speaking engagements, and advisory roles.